中国光伏发电成本下降潜力分析

Cost Reduction Potential of Photovoltaic Power Generation in China

国内外光伏发电成本一直高于传统发电成本或者销售电价。为了实现光伏发电的低价上网,需了解如何降低光伏发电成本以及光伏发电成本下降的潜力,探求中远期光伏成本下降潜力,为政府和企业提供决策依据。通过开发基于全寿命周期成本结构的自底向上模型,分析出在主要驱动因素作用下2020年前我国光伏发电成本下降潜力。得出光伏发电将在部分地区平价上网的结论,光伏发电成本还应进一步降低,才能规模化应用和可持续发展;技术创新可对光伏成本下降做出较大贡献。

The cost of photovoltaic （PV） power generation has always been higher than the cost of conventional power generation or the sales price of electricity both at home and abroad. To realize the integration of the PV power with the power grid at a lower price, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the possible measures to be taken to reduce the PV cost and the potential of the cost reduction. This study explores the cost reduction potential of the PV power generation in China to provide the decision-making basis for the government and businesses. The paper creates a bottom-up model based on the whole lifecycle cost so as to identify the PV cost reduction potential in China betbre 2020 that will be realized by major driving factors. It is concluded that the PV power and the conventional power will reach parity in price in parts of China by 2020, while the cost of the PV power generation should be further reduced to realize large scale application and sustainable development. Technological innovations will play a key role in the cost reduction.