基于模糊Bow-tie模型的深水海底管道定量风险评价研究

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Deepwater Submarine Pipeline Based on Fuzzy Bow-tie Model

为有效评价深水海底管道风险,提出一种新的模糊Bow-tie模型定量风险评价方法。综合运用Bow-tie图、模糊集以及德尔菲法,定量分析油气泄漏概率。进一步利用层次分析法(AHP)研究油气泄漏后果的严重程度,给出泄漏后果因素的权重系数选择方案。同时,结合风险矩阵,实现对高风险深水海底管道的定量风险评价。将上述方法用到具体海底管道工程中,得出目标海底管道泄漏概率属于A级,泄漏后果属于Ⅲ级,泄漏风险为高风险,这一结果与实际情况较为符合。

In order to effectively assess risk of deepwater submarine pipeline,a new quantitative risk assessment method based on fuzzy bow-tie model,was therefore proposed.Firstly,leakage possibility of oil/gas was quantitatively analyzed using Bow-tie model,Fuzzy Sets and Delphi method.Moreover,leakage consequence was analyzed by analytic hierarchy process,and weighting coefficients of consequence-influencing factors were obtained.Accordingly,quantitative risk assessment was completed by risk matrix.In the end,the above-mentioned assessment method was applied to a certain submarine pipeline.Leakage possibility level of target submarine pipeline belongs to A and leakage consequence level,III,and risk level,high,agreeing well with the reality.