上级指导预报订正方法研究

The Study of Corrected Method of Guidance Forecast

从适应现代预报业务需求出发，针对中央台、省台2010年指导预报进行检验，并认真分析降水空漏报原因，结合本地天气形势及地形特点，建立降水、气温及灾害性天气预报指标，并对历史资料进行反查。采用条件概率将消空率≥80％的预报指标作为消空指标，将预报准确率≥90％的预报指标作为补漏指标，对指导预报建立消空、补漏预报方法，提高市级订正预报准确率。该订正方法在2011年业务应用中预报效果显著。

Based on the requirements of forecasting, the guidance forecast of central meteorological observatory and province observatory was tested. It was analyzed what caused the error forecast. The disaster weather forecast index of precipitation and air temperature was established based on local weather situation and topographical features and tested the historical data. The corrected method was effective in forecasting