基于折扣系数法的高拱坝多效应量证据融合评价模型

Multi-effect-quantity Evidence Fusion Evaluation Model for High Arch Dams Based on Discount Coefficient Theory

为解决多源监测信息间可能存在冲突的问题,利用D-S证据理论中的突出关键证据作用、弱化冲突证据影响的折扣系数法,建立了高拱坝多效应量冲突证据融合评价模型,并给出了一个工程实例。该模型可以合理、有效地弱化存在冲突的监测信息对高拱坝安全综合评价的不利影响。

In order to solve the problem that conflicts may exist among multi-source monitoring information,a new fusion evaluation model for conflict evidence of multi-effect quantity in high arch dams is established by using the discount coefficient method of D-S evidence theory which can highlight the role of key evidence and weaken the influences of conflict evidence.An engineering example is given.The proposed model can reasonably and effectively weaken the negative influences of the conflict monitoring information on the comprehensive safety evaluation of the high arch dams.