风险投资项目的风险测定与决策

Risk detection for risk investment projects and decision making

介绍了主观测定法中的A记分法和客观测定法中的Z记分法 ,并提出在风险投资领域引入贝叶斯决策方法 ,它可以把主观的先验概率与客观调查结果 (补充信息 )结合起来 ,根据项目成长情况 ,以及项目有关数据、信息的增加而不断修正原先的先验概率 ,形成更为符合实际情况的后验概率 ,并据以确定各个方案的期望损益值和最优方案 ,使决策逐步完善 。

Traditional risk measuring method is always used only in a way of viewing the Enterprise as a whole. But because of the unique project management mode in venture capital corporation, now we can apply traditional method to make decision in venture project. Firstly simply introduced A billiard maker method, Z billiard maker method, and advance that apply the Bayes decision making method in realm of venture capital, this method can take subjective predictive probability together with objective result( supplemental information ), result to the after probability, which is more accordant with actual situation than the former, accordingly we can use it to compute expect increase and decrease in multi object decision making, obviously the result is more accurate than before.