我国城市化与粮食安全动态关系研究

Dynamic Relationship Between China's Urbanization and the Food Security

文章旨在通过建立城市化与粮食安全之间的动态耦合模型,分析二者之间的关系。研究方法采用数理统计分析方法和建模的方法。研究结果显示:1990-1993年、1999-2003年,我国城市化发展与粮食安全处于低调共生阶段,即二者独立发展,相互制约关系微弱;在1993-1998年、2003-2010年,城市化发展与粮食安全之间的关系处于胁迫发展阶段,即城市化发展开始显现对粮食安全水平的制约。研究结论是:从城市化与粮食安全的耦合度发展趋势来看,目前二者产生了制约作用,政府应注意城市化过程中的粮食安全问题,提高城市化过程中土地利用效率,建立二者之间协调发展的长效机制。

The purpose of this study is to research the relationship between urbanization and food Security.The results show that： during 1990 to 1993,1999 to 2003,China＇s urbanization development and food security in low-key symbiotic stage,they are both independent development and almost no restrict each other;during the period of 1993 to 1998 and since 2003,the relationship between urbanization and food security are in stress stage of development,the development of the urbanization is beginning to show the constraints on the level of food security.By analyzing the trend of them the long term mechanism for the coordinated development between of them should be established.