中国制造业增长方式和结构变迁的再检验--基于行业和时期异质性的半参数平滑系数模型

RE-EXAMINATION ON THE GROWTH MODE AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF CHINA'S MANUFACTURING——Based on Semi-parametric Smooth Coefficient Model

本文采用了基于充分灵活的生产函数形式的半参数平滑系数模型(SPSCM),对1999—2008年中国制造业的要素产出弹性、全要素生产率以及生产率主要影响因子的作用进行了估计和测算。主要研究结论包括:研究期内制造业全要素生产率年均增长14.1%,显示中国制造业进入集约增长模式。在2002—2003年期间,中国制造业结构发生较大变化。伴随劳动密集型产业和产业环节快速扩张,资本产出弹性大幅下降,劳动力产出弹性攀升。企业规模和技术进步对生产率都有显著的积极影响,自主研发对生产率的影响在时间和行业之间具有广泛的异质性,但2004年以后出现了趋同的积极影响。

Based on a novel semi-parametric smooth coefficient model （SPSCM）, this paper estimated the factor elasticity, total factor productivity and the marginal effect of influencing factors in China＇s manufacturing from 1999 to 2008. This paper concluded that the average annual growth rate of TFP of China＇s manufacturing was 14. 1% in the study period. The structure of China＇s manufacturing experienced a great transition in 2002-2003. Due to the expansion of labor-intensive sector, the output elasticity of physical capital decreased rapidly and the elasticity of labor increased substantially. The impact of R＆D varied substantially across different sectors and over time before 2004. R＆D had significantly positive effect in almost all of sectors after 2004.