基于前景理论的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法

Risk decision analysis method for emergency response based on prospect theory

针对应急方案对突发事件发展演变存在干预并可能导致不同的人员伤亡和财产损失的情形,提出了一种基于前景理论的应急响应风险决策方法.首先,描述了突发事件应急响应的风险决策问题;然后,基于前景理论的思想,计算突发事件不同情景的综合价值,即定量化描述针对不同情景的人员伤亡和财产损失的决策者综合心理感知;进一步地,计算突发事件不同情景的权重,即定量化描述针对不同情景出现的重要性程度的决策者心理感知;在此基础上,依据情景综合价值、情景权重和应急方案的成本投入,计算各应急方案的综合前景值,并依据综合前景值的大小确定应急方案排序.最后,通过一个案例研究说明了该方法的可行性与有效性.

With respect to the situations that response actions will intervene evolvement of emergency and cause different life and property losses,this paper proposes a risk decision analysis method for emergency response based on prospect theory.First,the description of risk decision problem of emergency response is given.Then,based on main idea of prospect theory,the values of possible scenarios of emergency are calculated,i.e.,describe the decision maker＇s psychological feeling on the life and property losses quantitatively. Furthermore,the weights of possible scenarios of emergency are calculated,i.e.,describe the decision maker＇s psychological feeling on the important degree of possible scenarios quantitatively.Moreover, according to the values,weights and alternative cost,the overall prospect value of each alternative is calculated to determine a ranking of alternative.Finally,a case study is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.