广东沿海夏季降水年代际变化成因分析

A possible cause for interdecadal variations of summer precipitation along Guangdong coast

利用零降水日对广东沿海夏季降水的年代际变化成因进行统计相关分析,结果表明:南海表层海温(SST)对次年夏季广东沿海地区降水有明显影响,并且这种影响作用在20世纪70年代有一个明显的年代际变异;南海SST影响广东省夏季降水的敏感区域在不同的年代际阶段都非常靠近广东省,局地性非常明显。局地的海气相互作用对广东沿海夏季降水的短期气候预测有显著的意义。

No-rainfall days were used to separate the steady rainfall from occasional ones, and coefficient analysis was adopted to explore the effects of the sea surface temperature （SST） of the South China Sea on the summer pre- cipitation, and the results indicate that the South China Sea SST anomalies （SSTA） affect the rainfalls in Guangdong coast and the relationship of them have made interdecadal changes in 1970s. Moreover, at different interdecadal phase, both of the sensitive sea areas of the South China Sea SST on summer rainfall were very close to Guangdong Province. Local air-sea interactions play important role in short range climate prediction for the summer precipita- tion in Guangdong coast.