央行货币冲销的经济学分析

Economic Analysis on the Monetary Sterilization Policy of the People's Bank of China

为研究央行货币冲销政策的有效性,本文基于货币数量论构建的货币冲销理论模型,利用2003年第2季度到2011年第3季度的数据进行实证研究,结果表明,货币冲销政策确实能够有效抑制由于外汇储备增加引起的通货膨胀。进一步,利用2002年6月到2011年5月的数据建立VAR模型,考察外汇储备增加和货币冲销对物价水平以及社会产出水平的动态影响。研究表明,我国外汇储备增加具有明显的通货膨胀效应,央行货币冲销政策对物价具有显著的平抑作用。

This paper examines the effectiveness of monetary sterilization in China. The paper establishes an empirical model based on the quantitative monetary theory, the empirical testing through china＇s seasonal data during the period of 2003- 2011 shows that the monetary sterilization policy of the central bank is effective on the whole and the elasticity of monetary ster- ilization policy is good enough. A VAR model is also employed to detect the dynamic effects of the foreign exchange reserve in- crease and the monetary sterilization on inflation. The results show that the monetary sterilization can affiliate the inflation effect raised by the foreign exchange reserve increase.