贸易失衡的根源:汇率还是经济结构——基于美国案例的实证分析

The Root of Trade Imbalance: Exchange Rate or Economic Structure? An Empirical Analysis based on U.S.Case

本文基于协整理论、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等时间序列处理技术对美国经济结构、财政赤字、汇率与其贸易收支之间的动态关系进行了实证检验。检验结果表明:长期内,实体经济占比的增加会改善贸易收支,虚拟经济占比、财政赤字增加会恶化贸易收支,而汇率水平对于贸易收支的影响不显著;短期内,实体经济占比、虚拟经济占比对贸易收支的影响与长期相一致,财政赤字则相反,而汇率水平的上升在短期内导致贸易盈余的增加,但弹性值有变小的趋势。其政策的含义在于:影响美国贸易收支的主要因素来自其财政赤字及其国内经济结构,即实体经济与虚拟经济创造GDP的比例关系,而非汇率因素。因此,只有通过协调其国内实体经济与虚拟经济的发展,减少财政赤字,收缩储蓄-投资缺口才可以有效地调节贸易失衡问题,而不能一味地强调汇率因素。

The paper studies the dynamic relation among economic structure,fiscal deficits,exchange rate and trade balance in the United States by employing cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse responses function and so on.The result indicates that in the long time the increase in the proportion of the real economy will improve the trade balance,but the proportion of the fictitious economy,fiscal deficit will worsen the trade balance,and exchange rate for the trade balance is not significant.In short time,both the proportion of the real economy and the proportion of the fictitious economy are consistent with the long-term,but fiscal deficits are on the contrary;the rise in exchange rate will lead to the improvement of trade balance in the short time,but the elasticity has the trend of smaller.The policy implication is that,both U.S.budget deficit and its domestic economic structure are the main factors which affect the trade balance,rather than the exchange rate.Therefore,U.S.regulates the trade imbalances effectively only by coordinating its domestic real economy and fictitious economy and reducing the fiscal deficits,but emphasis on exchange rates is blindly.