人因飞行事故诱发因素的分析与Bootstrap预测仿真

Analysis and Bootstrap Prediction Simulation on Inducement of Human Factor Flight Accident

提出一套系统的人因飞行事故诱发因素的分析和Bootstrap预测仿真的方法。首先,在"瑞士奶酪"模型基础上构建空军某机种的人因飞行事故诱因分析分类体系;然后,在此基础上采用数据挖掘技术辨识重要的单诱因、两两诱因组合及诱发模式;最后,使用Bootstrap分析方法对辨识出的单诱因、两两诱因组合及诱发模式执行预测仿真,并据此制订出针对性强、易于操作的预防策略。研究成果可为指导和加强安全管理,保证飞行安全提供决策参考依据。

A set of the systematic analysis and Bootstrap prediction simulation method of human factor flight accident is proposed. Firstly, the Human Factor Flight Accident Analysis and Classificntion System （HFACS） of some aircraft type of Air Force, based on Swiss Cheese model, is constructed. Then using the data mining techniques the single inducements, pairwise combinations and inducing modes are identified on the basis of HFACS. Finally, the single inducements, pairwise combinations and inducing modes obtained through above identification are simulated for prediction using Bootstrap analysis method, by which the prevention strategies with high pertinence and simply operation are worked out. The research results can provide the reference for flight safety decision making to guide and strengthen the safety management.