城市化对碳排放量及强度的影响

Influence on the carbon emissions by urbanization

基于1995-2009年中国各省的面板数据,利用STIRPAT模型建立了基本的分析框架。首先以全国各省整体为研究对象,研究了城市化对中国碳排放的整体作用方向,然后利用面板变系数模型和门槛面板模型分析了城市化对碳排放的影响的差异。结果表明:整体而言,中国的城市化对碳排放量和碳排放强度均具有正向的影响,且城市化对碳排放强度的影响比对碳排放量的影响大;就不同省份而言,城市化对碳排放的影响存在差异;人口规模、收入水平、产业结构以及城市化水平的变化,均会使城市化与碳排放的关系发生变化,且相对而言,人口规模和城市化水平对城市化与碳排放的关系影响更大。

Based on China's provincial panel data from 1995 to 2009,the national impact of urbanization on carbon emissions is analyzed firstly in this article,by taking all provinces as sample and establishing basic analytical framework based on STIRPAT model.And then the provincial impacts are analyzed based on the models of panel variable coefficient and threshold panel.Analysis show that: Nationally,urbanization has a positive impact on carbon emissions in China,whether on quantity or on intensity,and even,the impacts on intensity bigger than on quantity;Provincially,urbanization has different impacts on carbon emissions;The relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions is determined directly by the population size,urbanization level,income level,and industrial structure,and relatively,the first two factors have bigger impacts than the others.