中国历史治乱和现代化进程中的人口因素

The Peace and Turmoil in Ancient China and Their Relationships with Population

古代中国王朝的周期性崩溃,与土地资源有限条件下人口数量的迅速增长有关。人口的增加稀释了人均生存资源,生存资源的紧缺又加剧了社会冲突,最后导致社会体系的崩溃。中国古代社会始终没能摆脱这种"治乱循环"的困境。从系统论角度看,以土地为核心的生存资源构成相对不变的边界条件,人口数量是一个有起有落的变量,"改朝"是自然因素与社会因素交织形成的历史振荡。明末以来一些思想家对人口数量自然增长给社会带来的问题有所认识。中国自清末以来人口基数增大,人口的质量受到关注,但土地问题仍影响了20世纪中国政治的走向。中国改革开放30多年来在经济方面的成就,与计划生育政策对人口数量的控制有很大关系。

The periodic collapse and rebuilding of ancient Chinese empire system were related with sur- plus population in limited land resources. The over growth of population had diluted the land resources per capita, aggravated the social conflicts, and then led to an collapse of social system during certain period of time. The ancient Chinese society had never cast off such predicament in history. In view of system theory, the land resources had established a relatively limited boundary of the social system while the numbers of population had always been a kind of variable quantity of coming up and down. The change of dynasties in Chinese history was an oscillation of civilization effected by social elements interweaved with natural elements. Since late Ming dynasty some great thinkers had noticed the social problems bringing about by the great population. Since late Qing dynasty the Chinese population has consistently gone up and never downfall when as the quality of population has been stressed by some scholars. In the 20th century, the problem of population and farmlands had still affected modern China＇s political trend. The economical successes of China in recent 30 years has related with its birth control policy that contained population increase effectively.