辛亥鼎革之际地方督抚的出处抉择——兼论清末“内外皆轻”权力格局的影响

The Courses of Action Chosen by Governors-General and Governors in the 1911 Revolution——Also Discussing the Influence of the “Weak Inside and Weak Outside” Power Configuration in the Late Qing Period

从群体结构看,武昌起义时在职的地方督抚仍然是一个旧式的官僚群体;武昌起义后新任的地方督抚群体则注入了新的因素,同时也暗伏了新的变数。各省督抚在武昌起义后的反应,可谓情形不一。那种认为督抚大都奔逃自保而少有效忠清廷者的说法,未免有简单片面化之嫌。其实,真正转向革命阵营或死命对抗革命的督抚只是极少数。大多数督抚还是存效忠清廷之心,虽然因无法控制新军及当地绅商不肯合作,而不能有效地镇压革命,但他们并不愿看到清王朝的覆灭,还是采取了不同程度的防范应对措施。这既与其切身利益有关,也与其思想观念状况有关。辛亥鼎革之际,因清末新政过程中清廷不断收束权力,中央与地方权力关系表面上演变为"内重外轻"之格局,但实际上是一种"内外皆轻"的权力格局。其总体表征是中央与地方权威一并流失,中央无法控制地方,地方无力效忠中央。"内外皆轻"权力格局的形成,直接后果是清廷中央与地方均无法有效地应对革命,致使清王朝走向覆亡之路;另一个严重的后果是掌握军队尤其是新军的军人势力的崛起,出现军人干政,导致民国初年的军阀政治。

In terms of group membership,the incumbent governors-general and governors during the Wuchang Uprising were still an old-style bureaucratic group.The new group of governors-general and governors after the Wuchang Uprising included new elements,under which were hidden new variables.The governors-general and governors each had different reactions after the Wuchang Uprising.The viewpoint that most of the governors-general and governors were not loyal to the Qing court and abandoned it for self-prevention is rather simplistic and unbalanced.In fact,only a few of them either really turned to the revolutionary camp or fought desperately against it.Most of them still had some loyalty to the Qing court.They could not effectively suppress the revolution because they could not control the New Army and the local gentry were unwilling to cooperate with them.Nevertheless,they were not willing to watch the downfall of the Qing dynasty,and they did take some precautions and countermeasures.This was related to their own interests,and also related to their thoughts and ideas.Because the Qing court continuously concentrated power during the New Policies period,by the time of the transformation of 1911 the power relationship between the central government and local governments seemed to have evolved into a pattern where power was 'strong inside and weak outside' the court.However,the real power configuration was 'weak inside and weak outside.' Its general symptom was the loss of authority of both the central government and local governments.The central government could not control the local governments and local governments had no strength to defend the central government.The direct consequence of the 'weak inside and weak outside' power configuration was that neither the central government of the Qing empire nor the local governments could take effective measures to fight against the revolution,leading the Qing finally onto the road to downfall.Another serious consequence was an increase in the power of the military men who controlled the armies,in particular the New Armies,and the appearance of military intervention in politics,leading to the warlord politics of the early Republican period.