基于未确知测度的高校融资财务风险预警

The Research on Financial Risk Pre-warning of Financing Based on the Unascertained Measure

融资财务风险是高校融资风险的重要方面,预警评价指标体系基本结构如下:总指标:高校融资财务风险;一级指标:总体财务状况指标、负债风险指标、运行绩效风险指标、发展能力、综合能力;二级指标:流动比率、学校货币资金支付率、负债保障倍数、专项资金占用程度、年末借款总额占总收入的比率、借入款项占总支出的比率、借入款项占货币资金的比率、资产负债率、生均教育事业费支出、人员经费占总经费比率、经费自给率、公用支出比率、固定资产增长比率、资产权益率、事业基金可用率、自筹收入能力比率、年末潜在支付能力。其定性分析指标设定无警、轻警、中警、重警、巨警五个等级,可通过专家打分法得到,定量分析指标可直接计算得到。

In the paper, we established an comprehensive pre-waming model of the multi-level unascertained measure based on the analysis of the financial risk influence factors of university financing.In the process of warning study,we use entropy evaluation method to determine the weight of classification for secondary indexes, and use analysis hierarchy process to determine the weight for first indexes, and realize the combination between the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, and reflect the scientific and comprehensive of college financing financial risk pre-waming, which has played a positive role with effective prevention on the financial risk of the college financing.