经济发展与城市蔓延的Logistic曲线假说及其验证--基于华东地区典型城市的考察

Hypothesis and Validation on the Logistic Curve of Economic Development and Urban Sprawl——Based on the Investigation of the Typical Cities in East China

经济发展与城市蔓延一直是学者研究的热点,其假说大都建立在发展与保护矛盾不断激化的基础之上,论文基于国内外城市发展轨迹的判断,提出新的研究假说:经济发展与城市蔓延存在Logistic曲线关系,并选择华东地区典型城市进行实证检验。结果表明:第一,国外(区域)经济发展由快速城市化、工业化初级阶段过渡到高级或后工业化阶段进程中,对城市蔓延扩张的依赖程度逐渐减弱;第二,中国1978—2003年间经济发展与城市蔓延增长具有周期性波动特征,2003年以后两者波动出现明显脱钩或分歧;第三,实证结果显示,上海、南京、无锡和徐州的第二三产业GDP在分别达到2.91×1011、1.02×1011、4.43×1010、9.42×1010元时,城市蔓延扩张出现拐点,验证了研究假说,其规模上限分别为8.99×104、6.01×104、2.20×104、3.43×104 hm2。研究结论能够为我国城市蔓延治理和公共政策调整提供科学依据和直接参考。

Economic development and urban sprawl have been the scholar＇ s research hot spot, and the hypothesis is mostly based on the contradiction of the development and protection. This paper, based on the development track of cities at home and abroad, puts forward the new research perspective judgment. There is the Logistic curve between economic development and urban sprawl, and then the authors select the typical cities in East China for empirical test. As the results show： First, economic growth＇ dependence on urban sprawl weakened gradually abroad from the rapid ur- banization, industrialization primary phase transiting to the senior or after the process of industriali- zation stage. Second, China＇s economic growth and urban sprawl has periodical fluctuating charac- teristics from 1978 to 2003, and there have been significant decoupling or different fluctuations since 2003. Third, the empirical results show that turning points would come in urban sprawl when the secondary o and tertiary industry GDP of Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi and Xuzhou achieved respectively 2. 91 x 10~yuan, 1.02 x 10H yuan, 4. 43 x 10~~ yuan and 9.42 ×10^10 yuan, and this verified the hypothesis that the scale cap would be 8.99× 104 hm^2, 6. 01 × 104 hm^2, 2. 20 × 10^4 hm^2 and 3.43 × 10^4 hm^2. Research conclusion can provide scientific basis and the direct reference for the management of urban sprawl and public policy adjustment in China