我国产业结构高度的影响因素和变化探析

An Empirical Analysis of the Determination and Change of the Height of the Industrial Structure

对产业结构高度的影响因素进行文献回顾后,利用误差修正模型和Chow检验对1978～2005年的经济数据进行实证分析。结果表明,产业结构高度与经济总量水平、技术进步程度、投资需求、消费需求、国际贸易结构和利用外资情况等影响因素之间存在着长期均衡关系,其中经济总量、技术进步和投资需求在短期内的影响更为明显,说明致力于这些因素的提高将促进我国产业结构高度的进一步提升。我国的产业结构高度以1992年为转折点发生了结构性的变化,说明我国市场经济体制改革对产业结构提升的重要性。

This paper firstly has a literature review of the factors that affect the height of industrial structure,and then makes an empirical analysis on the economic data in 1978 to 2005,using the Error Correction Model and the Chow Test.The results show that the height of the industrial structure has long-term equilibrium relationship with economic development level,the degree of technological progress,investment demand,consumer demand,international trade structure and utilization of foreign capital.The relation of the height of the industrial structure with the economic level,technological progress and investment demand are more significant in the short term.It indicates that we should be committed to improving these factors to make a contribution to a higher degree of China’s industrial structure and the further improvement.This paper also discloses a structural change occurred in 1992 as a turning point of the height of China’s industrial structure,manifesting that the reform of market economy had an important role in upgrading the industrial structure.