老龄化对储蓄和社会养老保障的影响研究

Research of the Impact of Aging on Savings and Old-age Security

本文从一个两期的世代交叠模型入手,分析了人口老龄化对储蓄和社会养老保障支出的影响。在此基础上运用动态GMM模型对我国2000～2008年地区面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明:第一,人均居民储蓄滞后项对基期储蓄的影响作用较大且高度显著;当期老年人口抚养比对人均居民储蓄的影响为负,上期老年人口抚养比对居民储蓄并没有显著影响。第二,人均养老保障支出滞后项对当期人均养老保障支出影响作用较大且高度显著;当期老年人口抚养比对人均养老保障支出有促进作用,而上期老年人口抚养比抑制了人均养老保障支出的增加。

This paper analyzes the impact of aging population on pension savings and social security expenditure using a two-period overlapping generations model.Based on this,we analyze empirically regional panel data from 2000 to 2008 of China using dynamic GMM model.The results show that：（1） the effect of per capita household savings lags to the base period savings is large and significant;the impact of the current elderly population dependency ratio on the average household savings is negative,the previous period of the elderly population dependency ratio has no significant effect on household savings.（2） The impact of per capita old-age security spending lags on the current per capita old-age security payments is large and significant;the dependency ratio of current elderly population has promote role to the average old-age security spending,but the previous period of the elderly population dependency ratio suppresses the increasing of per capita old-age security expenditure.