我国寿险需求经济因素的动态分析——基于状态空间模型的实证研究

A Dynamic Analysis of Economic Factors of China's Life Insurance Demand:An Empirical Research Based on the State Space Model

通过构建可变参数的状态空间模型,采用1999～2010年的季度数据,对影响寿险需求的主要经济因素,收入、利率及通货膨胀和寿险需求之间的关系,进行实证研究。结果显示,收入是影响寿险需求的主要因素,但在不同的时期内其影响程度不同;利率对寿险需求的影响和资本市场的发展相关;通胀对寿险需求的影响和寿险险种的构成及新型寿险所占比例有关。

This paper makes an empirical research on main economic factors to influencing life insurance demand,and analyzes the relationship among income,interest rate,inflation and life insurance demand by constructing a State Space Model of variable parameter with quarterly data from 1999 to 2010.The result shows that：（1） income is the main factor affecting life insurance demand,although its influence is not always the same in different periods;（2） the impact of interest rate on life insurance demand is related to the capital market development;and（3） inflation has an influence on life insurance demand,which will be correlative with the proportion of different life insurance.