华北降水变化研究进展

Progress of Precipitation Research in North China

由于近60年来华北降水量呈现减少趋势,使该地区本已紧张的水资源形势更加严峻,给工农业生产、居民生活、城市运行造成严重威胁,已引起政府和科学界的高度关注,例如为缓解华北用水紧张形势,国家实施了南水北调工程。华北降水发生变化的机理是什么,搞清这个问题对认识华北降水未来变化趋势及转型很有借鉴意义。本文重点从华北降水年代际变化特征出发,回顾了海温、东亚夏季风、副热带高压、积雪和海冰变化影响华北夏季降水的机制。在归纳总结的基础上,指出了未来研究方向,主要包括华北降水什么时间发生转型,ENSO影响华北降水的机制以及ENSO长期变化趋势对华北降水年代际变化的影响,印度洋海温异常影响华北夏季降水的机制,如何更好地定量描述东亚夏季风季节内、年际、年代际变化及其影响华北夏季降水的机制,副热带高压季节内变化、长期变化对华北夏季降水的影响。

The precipitation reduction in North China has made the already intense water resource situation even more severe,which poses a great threat to local industrial and agricultural production and future development,and has aroused great concern of the governments at all levels and the scientific community.For example,to alleviate the situation of water stress in North China,the Central Government has implemented the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.What is the the mechanism for changes in North China precipitation？ Understanding the problem can help us to recognize the future trends and reverse time in precipitation of North China.From the angle of interdecadal variations of precipitation in North China,this article mainly reviewed the impact mechanism on summer precipitation in North China on the sea surface temperature,the East Asian summer monsoon,subtropical high,snow and sea ice changes.Finally,thisp paper pointed out the direction for future research,including： what is the time for North China precipitation transformation from less to more;the mechanism of ENSO impact on precipitation in North China and the influence of ENSO long-term variation trend on precipitation in North China;what is the impact mechanism of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on summer precipitation in North China;how to better quantitatively describe the East Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal,interannual,decadal variations and their impact mechanism on summer rainfall in North China;subtropical high intraseasonal changes,long-term changes and how they affect summer precipitation in North China.