中国经济增长、能源消费与碳排放之间的关系研究

On the Relationship between Economic Growth,Energy Consumption and CO_2 Emissions in China

基于ARDL协整分析方法,分析了1965—2007年中国的经济增长、能源消费和碳排放之间的关系,结果表明,三者之间具有长期协整关系,在长期和短期内CO2排放对于经济增长都具有显著的正向影响作用。根据Grange因果关系检验的结果,能源消费是CO2排放的主要原因,而CO2排放增加又会促进经济的增长,为了降低CO2的排放量,一方面需要牺牲一定程度的经济增长,一方面需要提高现有能源的利用效率,积极寻找现有能源的替代资源。

This paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China for the period of 1965 -2007 based on the ARDL bound test approach. As the results show, there exists a short - run and a long - run co - integration relationship among the variables with a positive significant influence from the CO2 emissions to economic growth. Furthermore, according to the results of Grange causality test, energy consumption is the main reason for CO2 emissions, and CO2 emissions can promote the economic growth, In order to reduce CO2 emissions, on one hand, we should sacrifice a certain extent economic growth; on the other hand, we should improve the existing energy utilization efficiency and find alternative sources of energy available.