基于生物免疫的化工园区事故发生机理研究

Research on the Accident Occurring Mechanism of Chemical Industry Parks Based on Biological Immune

基于生物免疫系统抵御疾病(抗原)的原理,从事故致因、事故演化过程和事故发展规律出发,分析化工园区事故发生机理。结果表明,安全生产免疫系统的免疫力持续低于抗原系统的抗原强度是化工园区事故发生的根本原因;化工园区事故演化过程包括潜伏期、萌芽期、暴露期和恢复期,各个时期的形成是安全生产系统的免疫力和抗原系统的抗原强度之间的差异决定的;化工园区事故发生具有周期性,每个事故发展周期内都包含安全生产免疫系统→免疫力过低的免疫因子→事故触发免疫因子和安全生产抗原系统→抗原强度过大的抗原因子→事故触发抗原因子的变化过程。

Based the theories of biological immune system resists illnesses,the accident occurring mechanism of chemical industry parks is analyzed from the aspects of accident-causing,accident evolution and accident rule.The results indicate,firstly,the root cause of the accidents is that the immunity of immune system for safety production is persistently lower than the strength of antigen system;secondly,the accident evolution processes include incubation stage,forming stage,exposure stage and restoration stage,and the formation of them is determined by the difference between the immunity of immune system and the strength of antigen system;finally,the accidents are cyclical and every accident development cycle shows： immune system for safety production → immune factors whose immunity are too lower → immune factors which can arouse accidents and antigen system for safety production → antigens factors whose strength are too high → antigens factors which can arouse accidents.