淮河水质变清的产业规模制约与规划漏洞补丁

Remedying Bug in Planning Content and Industry Scale Restraint on Achieving the Planning Goal to Control Pollution Within Huaihe River Basin in China

为分析产业规模对淮河水质变清的制约作用,论证实现淮河水质变清目标的必要条件,考察规划方案的不充分性缺陷,首先计算了少数几个行业的部分产品在完全达标排放情形下的COD排污总量。根据1995年淮河流域四省少数几个行业的部分产品实际产量和当时执行的水污染物排放标准,计算得到的COD达标排污总量值(36.95万t)就已超过水质变清目标下的最大允许排放总量值(36.8万t),其中流域内造纸行业的COD达标排放总量就高达27.66万t,占实现淮河流域水质变清目标时所允许最大排放量36.8万t的75.2%。《淮河流域水污染防治规划及"九五"计划》未涉及行业或产品的规模控制、最大允许COD排污总量的行业或产品分配、目标可达性与方案充分性的论证等内容。规划方案与规划目标是相互脱节的,无法保障规划目标的实现。产业结构中排污负荷高的产品生产规模过大且没有得到严格有效的压缩控制是导致淮河流域水质变清目标未能实现的重要原因之一。要想实现淮河水质变清,严格控制全流域内排污负荷高的工业产品总产量规模是必要条件之一。

In order to explore the deep causes of industry scale within the Huaihe River basin resulting in failure of achieving the planning goal,typical cases are discussed with calculating and analyzing of the results.According to outputs of only twelve kinds of products from five industry sectors in the four provinces related to Huaihe River basin in 1995 and valid discharge standards of water pollutants in 1995,total COD amount is calculated on the assumption that all wastewaters are tallied with valid discharge standards for water pollutants from mills processing the above products.The calculating result（0.369 5 million tons） exceeds the planning goal（0.368 million tons）,in which 0.276 6 million tons（i.e.,75.2%） are from the pulp and paper industry within the Huaihe River basin.Therefore,over and uncontrolled product scale of the industry sectors with heavy COD discharge such as pulp and paper industry are ones of key causes which results in failure of achieving the planning goal to control pollution within Huaihe River Basin.It is necessary to achieve the planning goal that product scale of the industry sectors with heavy COD discharge such as pulp and paper industry must be strictly controlled and reduced greatly.Even if such 15%（a very high percent） of permitting maximum amount of COD discharge under the planning goal are assigned to the pulp and paper industry sector within the Huaihe River basin,the product scale of the industry must be constrict into 20% of the scale level in 1995,unless it is impossible to achieve the planning goal for the Huaihe River.Therefore,the contents of planning document should added with the following matters,such as scale control of the correlative products,distribution of allowable discharged COD amount to industries or products,accessibility analysis of the planning goals and sufficiency of planning schemes etc,unless the substance of planning text is separated from the planning goal and then will not ensure to achieve the planning goal.