美国出口LNG及对世界LNG市场的影响分析

LNG exports from the United States and their impact on the global LNG market

2010年9月以来,美国一批拟建LNG出口项目的出现改变了世界长期LNG供应预期。目前美国已批准及规划的LNG出口项目总规模约每年1×108 t,相当于2011年全球LNG贸易总量的40%,成为未来世界重要的LNG潜在资源,受到主要LNG进口国(包括中国)的广泛关注。为此,通过对美国天然气储量和供需的分析,认为美国具备规模出口LNG的基本条件,并且与澳大利亚出口LNG项目相比,美国出口LNG至东北亚地区具有综合成本优势。此外以德勤咨询公司和英国天然气集团提供的美国天然气供应曲线为基础,分析了不出口LNG和出口LNG两种情景下,美国长期天然气需求量变化对美国天然气价格的影响,指出美国出口LNG导致其天然气价格大幅上涨的可能性不大。而对LNG进口国而言,美国出口LNG将增加世界LNG供应量,使世界各地LNG和天然气市场相互影响进一步加深,有助于缩小世界各区域天然气价格差距,但同时需要认真研究应对美国天然气出口政策变动和天然气价格波动的方法和策略。

Since September in 2010,the projects in the planning of LNG exports from the United States have changed the forecast of the global long-term LNG supply.Currently,the annual LNG exports volume approval and in planning from the U.S.reaches about 100 million tons in total,which is equivalent to 40% of the global LNG trade.It means that the U.S.LNG has become one of the most important LNG sources in the global LNG trade and is highly concerned by the main LNG importing countries such as China.In view of this,through the analysis of natural gas reserves and gas supply & demand in the U.S.,it is considered that the U.S.has the ability to export a large volume of LNG to foreign buyers;compared to the LNG exports from Australia,the LNG exports from the U.S.to the east and north Asian countries and districts have the comprehensive superiority particularly in costs.Then,according to the U.S.natural gas supply curves sourced from the Deloitte Center for Energy Solutions and Deloitte Market Point LLC and the British Gas Group respectively,the impact of the long-term natural gas demand on the natural gas prices in the U.S.under two situations is analyzed: with and without LNG exports.It is pointed out that there is lest possibility for the LNG exports leading to a soaring high gas price in the U.S.As for the LNG importers,the U.S.LNG will increase the global LNG supply amount,further deepen the interaction between LNG and natural gas market all over the world,and help reduce the price differences between regions in the world.In the end,it is suggested that how much attention should be paid and what measures should be taken to deal with any changes in the U.S.policies on natural gas exports and the fluctuation of natural gas prices.