基于投入产出模型的区域洪涝灾害间接经济损失评估

ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FLOOD DISASTER INDIRECT ECONOMIC LOSS BASED ON INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

重大自然灾害的恢复重建的时间长短与灾害造成的间接经济损失大小直接相关,因而影响灾害造成的总损失。因此评估灾害的间接经济损失是灾后制定减灾政策的重要内容。投入产出模型是灾害经济影响评估应用最为广泛的模型,基于区域投入产出模型,结合湖南省经济状况和救灾政策,以月为时间间隔,模拟了1998年湖南省经济在洪涝灾害后的恢复情况,并用建筑业灾后恢复数据进行了比较验证。模拟结果表明在洪涝灾害中湖南省的间接经济损失为178.46亿元,占直接经济损失的39%。不同部门灾后恢复模拟结果有利于制定减灾战略、优化救灾和重建资源的分配,最大限度地减少灾害对经济系统的冲击。尽管该模拟结果还存在一定的不确定性,结果表明投入产出模型在模拟灾害间接损失影响及恢复重建期的预估上能够发挥很好的作用。

Abstract. The recovery time of natural disaster has direct relation with indirect loss, and then influence the total loss caused by disaster. Therefore, the evaluation of indirect loss after disaster is the most important part of establishing the disaster mitigation policies. The Input-Output model is most widely used in disaster economic evaluation. Based on regional Input-Output model, economic situation and disaster policies of Hu- nan Province,this study simulated the economic recovery of Hunan Province after the flood disaster,and compared with the construction recovery data. Through calculation, the indirect economic loss of Hunan flood disaster was 178.46 billion yuan,which was 39 percent of the direct economic losses. The results of recovery simulation in different departments were beneficial to make disaster reduction strategy, optimize the allocation of reconstruction and resources, minimize the impact on the economic system. Although the simulation results was still uncertain, the results indicated that the Input-Output model in simulation of disaster could play a very good role in simulating the indirect loss of disaster and estimating the recovery period .