我国农业机械化演进轨迹与或然走向

Evolution and Probable Trends of Agricultural Machinery in China

基于诱致性技术变迁的视角,运用1990～2009年时间序列数据分析农村居民的工资性收入对农户采用农业机械决策的影响。结果表明,工资性收入对农户采用农业机械的决策具有显著效应,工资性收入增加,农业机械采用水平也会增加。20世纪90年代以来我国农业机械使用水平的大幅上升主要是因为农业劳动力相对稀缺导致的,因此要改变优先发展农业生物化学技术的观点,而应注重农业机械技术与生物化学技术并重发展。

This article uses the change of rural residents ＇ wage income to measure the opportunity cost of the labor factor in agricultural production,and based on the Perspective of induced technological innovation hypotheses,analyzed the effect of the wage income of rural residents on the adoption of agricultural machinery using the 1990-2009 time series data.The result shows that the wage income has a significant effect on the adoption of agricultural machinery.With the increase of wage income,agricultural machinery＇s adoption level will increase.This article derives an important conclusion that the sharply rise of agricultural machinery＇s adoption since the 1990s in China is mainly caused by the relative scarcity of agricultural labor,so we should change the view of the priority to the development of agricultural biochemistry,but focus on the simultaneous development of agricultural machinery and biochemistry.