全球竞争新格局与中国产业发展趋势

New Pattern of Global Competition and China's Industrial Development Trend

20世纪后半叶尤其是21世纪以来,世界工业化出现了一系列历史性的新变化。除了苏联解体这样的政治性事变导致地缘政治格局发生巨大变化之外,促使世界工业化基本格局发生巨大变化的首先是国际经济格局特别是产业发展世界格局的巨大变化。其中,世界经济重心东移是这一变化的最重要表现之一。中国崛起成为加速世界经济重心东移的巨大引擎。中国工业化进程不仅表现得惊人的快速,往往被称为"压缩式的工业化",即在一个相对很短的时期内完成其他国家需要很长时间才能完成的过程;而且突出地具有区别于,甚至是相反于其他国家的许多特点。当前,中国工业正处于进军世界先进制造业领域的关键阶段。工业化是一个经济和社会结构剧烈变化而在其过程中往往会发生各种结构不平衡现象的历史时期,本质上是一个文明进化的过程。中国工业化过程,一方面是西方工业化技术路线的延伸;另一方面也受到东方中华文明的深刻影响。因此,中国工业化尽管在技术路线上同西方工业化没有实质性区别,但在体制机制上却有极大的不同。这种不同既有中国改革开放尚未深化、体制机制尚不健全的因素,也有许多中国特色因素。当中国工业化进入在30多年辉煌成就基础上继续向工业强国迈进的历史时刻,经济体制和政治体制改革问题又成为全社会最重要的关注焦点。

Since the latter half of the 20th century（the 21st century in particular）,the world industrialization has gone through a series of historical changes.In addition to political incidents such as the collapse of the Soviet Union that has led to significant change in geopolitical pattern.However,international economic pattern（fundamental change in industrial development pattern in particular） is the primary cause for significant change in world industrial pattern.Among which,the centre of economic gravity shifting eastward is one of the manifestation,a process powered by the rise of China.China＇s industrialization process is stunning in speed and was regarded as a ＂condensed industrialization,＂ which means to have completed industrialization with much short time than other countries.Currently,China is in a critical stage to enter the world＇s advanced manufacturing sector. Industrialization is a historical period during which remarkable change in economic and social structure as well as structural imbalances will happen,in essence,it is a process of the evolution of civilization.China＇s industrialization process is,on one hand,an extension of the technical route of the West industrialized countries;and,on the other hand,heavily affected by the Chinese civilization.Therefore,China＇s industrialization differs from its Western counterparts in terms of institutional mechanism despite minor difference in technical route.At this historical moment when China＇s industrialization（after three decades of splendored achievements） is heading towards the industrial powers,reform of economical and political mechanism will become the focus of the society.