贸易增长与工资差距(1990～2009)——基于劳动禀赋结构和技术效应结构的经验研究

An Empirical Study of Trade Growth and Wage Inequality(1990-2009) Based on Labor Endowment and Technical Effect Structure

文章从劳动禀赋结构和技术效应结构视角建立模型,研究中国近20年贸易增长与工资差距的关系。回归、Granger检验和Chow突变点分析发现:工资差距主要受与人均GNI更高国家之间贸易占贸易总额比率的影响,两者呈负相关关系;与低技能劳动密集型产品的产值占GDP比重关系密切;同时也和加工贸易、高新技术产品贸易的增长有显著的负的线性相关关系;事实表面上有悖于实际却佐证了要素价格均等化理论和S-S定理,而被广为引用的中间产品贸易模型和贸易的科技进步效应理论在某个角度上却缺乏经验支持;全球化与"赶超"式发展必然导致工资差距进一步扩大。

Under the framework of labor endowment and technical effect structure, this paper studies the relationship between Chinese trade growth and wage inequality. Regression, Granger test and Chow point mutation analysis show that： the wage gap is mainly affected by the percentage of Chinese trade with the countries of higher per capita GNI in the total trade; it is related with the percentage of the output value of unskilled-labor-intensive products in GDP; it has a significantly negative linear correlation with the growth of processing trade and high-tech export; the S-S theorem is much better applied than the processing trade and high-tech effect theory; globalization and ＂overtake＂ strategy will inevitably lead to the further widening of the wage gap.