基于基尼系数法的九龙江流域水污染物排放总量分配研究

Study on Total Pollutant Load Allocation of Water Bodies in Jiulong River Basin Based on Gini Coefficient Method

借鉴经济领域评价收入公平性的方法——基尼系数法,对九龙江流域水污染物排放总量进行分配。选取土地、人口和GDP为控制指标,绘制各控制指标与水污染物排放量的络伦曲线,计算相应的基尼系数并分析其合理性;建立以各控制指标环境基尼系数之和最小为目标的优化模型,设定合理的约束条件,获得基尼系数优化值。根据优化后总量分配结果,结合流域水环境容量测算结果,确定流域各县市区排污量的最终削减分配方案。结果表明,削减后的排污总量既能满足国家"十二五"总量削减目标,又可以确保流域水环境功能达标。

According to Gini coefficient,an evaluation method to estimate equity of the income,this study established a method to evaluate the equity of total pollutant load allocation in Jiulong River Basin.The Gini coefficient and its rationality were analyzed by selecting land,population and GDP as control indexes and drawing Lorenz curves of the total water pollutant load.The optimized model aiming at minimal sum value of each Gini coefficient was built by setting reasonable constraint conditions and computing optimized value of Gini coefficient.According to the distribution results of total load allocation,and combining with the computing result of water environmental capacity in Jiulong River Basin,the water pollution reduction plan was put forward for pollutant quantity of each county and urban districts of Jiulong River Basin.The result showed that the reduced total pollutant discharge standard not only meet the reduction targets of the Twelfth Five-year Plan,but also the request of basin water environment quality.