交通巨变对中国旅游业发展的影响及地域类型划分

The Impact of Great Changes of Transportation on the Development of China's Tourism Industry and Division of Regional Types

文章利用1985～2008年的相关统计数据及2006～2007年中国30个省区截面数据,采用协整分析和格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验方法,分析了交通客运量与旅游客流量的关系及地域差异。结果发现:(1)从时间序列来看,旅游客流量与交通客运量之间存在着某种均衡关系,入境客流量与航空客运量存在单向格兰杰因果关系,铁路客运量和公路客运量与入境客流量存在单向格兰杰因果关系;航空客运量和公路客运量与国内旅游客流量存在单向格兰杰因果关系,铁路客运量与国内客流量无格兰杰因果关系。(2)从30个省区的截面数据分析,发现入境客流量与民航客运量呈明显的线性相关,国内客流量与公路客运量呈明显的二次函数关系,据此计算了入境旅游对航空客运和国内旅游对公路客运依赖程度,将全国30个省区划分为不同的依赖—偏好类型。为认识陆路交通与旅游业的发展提供了重要依据。

By using relevant statistical data from 1985 -2008 and sectional data of China＇ s 30 provinces from 2006 2007 and adopting co-integration analysis and Granger causality test method, the paper analyses the relationship between passenger traffic and tourist flow and regional disparity. The results show that： 1. viewing from time-series, there is certain stable equilibrium relationship between tourist flow and passenger traffic and unidirectional Granger causality relationship between railway passenger traffic and inbound tourist volume. There is unidirectional Granger causality relationship between aviation passenger traffic and highway passenger traffic, but there is no Granger casuality relationship between railway passenger traffic and domestic tourist flow; 2. from the analysis of sectional data of 30 provinces, we can find that inbound tourist flow is distinctly line-related to aviation passenger traffic and there is obviously quadratic functional relationship between domestic passenger traffic and highway passenger traffic. Then we can calculate the dependence degree of inbound tourists to aviation passenger traffic and domestic tourists to highway passenger traffic. Then 30 provinces are divided into different dependence-preference types. The study provides important basis for our understanding about the development of transportation network and tourism industry.