高货币化、通货膨胀预期与通货膨胀

High Monetization Rate,Inflation Expectation and Inflation

通货膨胀成为信用货币经济中循环往复的问题,货币是症结关键。通过建立包含货币缺口和收入差距的凯恩斯Phillips曲线理论模型,利用中国1979-2010年的数据实证得出:货币化通过两种途径作用于通货膨胀,一是通过扩大货币缺口、直接推动当期物价上升,二是高货币化导致了较高的通货膨胀预期,这种预期又推动了通货膨胀的自我实现。因此,在经济平稳发展情况下,货币化是一个金融发展程度指标,但在严重依赖货币扩张推动经济增长的情况下,货币化却可能是货币超发的指标,与通货膨胀存在着密切关系。

Inflation in the credit economy is an cycle issues. The paper, by introducing the money gap and income gap in the model of the Keynesian Phillips curve, and applying the model on the 1979-2010 China data and concludes the role of monetization on inflation is in two ways, first by expanding the money gap, raising prices directly, the second is a high monetary rate leads to higher inflation expectations, the inflation expectation promotes self-realization. Thus, in the case of steady economic development, monetization is an indicator of financial development, but in the case of relying heavily on monetary expansion to promote economic growth, it is an good indicator of the money quantity over the demand, and there is a close relationship with inflation.