北京地区1984～1997年急性冠心病事件发病率变化趋势(中国MONICA方案的研究)

The trend of incidence rate of acute coronary events from 1984 to 1997 in Beijing area: Sino MONICA Project

目的 研究北京地区人群 1984～ 1997年急性冠心病事件发病率变化趋势的方向、强度以及在不同性别、年龄人群中的特点。方法 采用北京地区心血管病人群监测 (MONICA研究 )及后续研究的资料 ,按年度、性别、年龄分别计算急性冠心病事件发病粗率和 (或 )年龄标化率 ;用回归分析的方法计算急性冠心病事件发病率的年平均变化率和统计学显著性。结果 1984～ 1993年北京地区急性冠心病事件标化发病率的年平均增长率为 2 3 %。 1984～ 1997年急性冠心病事件标化发病率的年平均增长率为 1 7%男性的年平均增长率大于女性。研究初期和研究末期相比 ,多数年龄组发病率有所增加 ,其中男性 70～ 74岁组每 10万人群发病率的绝对增加幅度最大 ,率差为 13 2 /10万。女性5 5～ 5 9岁以上各年龄组的发病率都有所上升 ,除 65～ 69岁外 ,均有统计学显著意义。结论 北京地区急性冠心病事件发病率呈上升趋势 ,应加强北京地区人群冠心病预防的工作。

Objective To estimate the trend of incidence of acute coronary events in the population aged 35 74 in Beijing area from 1984 to 1997. Methods The new cases of acute coronary events occurred in the defined population in Beijing area were continually collected through an established monitoring system from 1984 to 1997, as part of study of the MONICA (multinational monitoring of the trends and determinants for cardiovascular diseases) project and its extensional study. The trend was calculated both from raw rates and age standardized annual rates(r) with the log liner model. The estimate 100b was expressed as average annual percentage change. Results The average annual percentage change was 2 3% for the total population aged 35 74 from 1984 1993, and 1 7% for part of the population that had data from 1984 1997. The increasing trend was more significant in the male population compared with female. Most of the age groups had significantly higher rates in the end stage of MONICA project when compared with the rates in its early stage. Among the age groups, change in the 70 74 age group was most remarkable. Conclusion The incidence of acute coronary events is rising in the population of Beijing area. Prevention for coronary heart disease should be strengthened in this area.