基于技术预见的制造业绿色工艺创新战略制定研究

Research on Strategy Formulation of Green Process Innovation for Manufacturing Industry Based on Technology Foresight

将技术预见引入制造业绿色工艺创新战略制定中,概述了制造业绿色工艺创新战略的提出背景和意义,并剖析了技术预见对制造业绿色工艺创新战略制定的作用。从创新战略制定过程的角度,将制造业绿色工艺创新战略制定划分为"关键绿色工艺确定、战略问题系统分析、战略方案产生与选择、战略方案修改与完善"四个阶段,提出将"文献计量法、情景分析法、德尔菲法、关键技术选择法和路线图法"五种技术预见方法分别融入制造业绿色工艺创新战略制定过程的思路。

This paper introduces technology foresight into the strategy formulation of green process innovation for manufactur- ing industry. It reviews the background and significance of the innovation strategy, and analyzes the effect of technology foresight to innovation strategy formulation. Then, it classifies the strategy formulation into four stages from the process angle that are determination of key green process, system analysis of strategic questions, production and selection of strategic scheme, modification and perfection of strategic scheme. It presents the thoughts of bringing technology foresight methods such as ＂Bibliometric Analysis, Scenarios Analysis, Delphi Method, Key-technology Choice and Route Map＂ into strategy formulation process.