财政支出政策的就业效应研究

Research of Fiscal Expenditure Policy's Employment Effect

针对中国面临严重的就业问题,在市场无法充分解决的情况下,本文研究财政支出的就业效应。通过计算财政支出各项明细与就业的相关系数,确定了各项财政支出的就业影响时滞期。对现行财政政策的就业效应进行了实证分析,有针对性地对非财政教育投入、非预算内固定资产投资进行格兰杰因果性分析,利用F统计量、卡方统计量、赤池信息准则、贝叶斯信息准则等检验方法对财政支出变量进行逐步回归,剔除不显著变量后,构建了财政支出政策的就业回归模型,并提出了调整财政支出结构的实践路径选择。

When China is confronting increasingly severe employment problem and the market could not fully solve this problem, the employment effect of fiscal expenditure policy is studied in this paper. The coefficients of fiscal expenditure items and employment are calculated, and fiscal expenditure items＇ lag phases are determined. Empirical analysis is done of the current fiscal expenditure policy＇ s employment effect, and Granger causality analysis is done of non-fiscal educational investment and non-budgeted fixed asset investment. Stepwise regression of fiscal expenditure variables is carried out using the F statistic, Chi-square statistic, Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion. Excluding not significant variables, the regression model of fiscal expenditure policy and employment is built. Besides, practical pathway is brought forward for adjusting fiscal expenditure structure.