中国可再生能源定价的SWOT分析与政策选择

SWOT Analysis and Policy Choice of Renewable Energy Sources Pricing in China

利用SWOT方法从政策、市场、技术、社会等层面分析了影响我国可再生能源定价的各种因素,测算出我们发展可再生能源可减少CO2的排放量,并着重研究可再生能源发展对环境经济影响。在参考国外可再生能源发电对CO2排放量贡献和国内可再生能源发展现状基础上,采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型测算出中国可再生能源在高、中、低发展目标水平下的CO2排放减少量。采用可计算的一般可均衡(CGE)模型测算发展可再生能源的宏观经济影响:发展可再生能源对中国GDP产生负向影响,但冲击并不大;另一方面,发展可再生能源可以显著减少CO2和SO2的排放,有利于降低单位GDP能耗。分析中国可再生能源定价中存在的主要问题,讨论中国政府现阶段的可再生能源定价的政策选择,最后就中国可再生能源的定价和发展提出相关的政策建议。

This paper analyzed the factors of renewable energy sources pricing from four levels of policy, market, technology and society using the method of SWOT, put forward that through develo-ping renewable energy sources to decrease the CO2 emission and focused on the effects of developing re- newable energy sources on the environmental economy. Based on the foreign studies on the contribute of renewable energy sources generating to the CO2 emission and the status of the development of domes- tic renewable energy sources, GM（1,1） model was used to measure the CO2 emission reductions under the high,medium and low levels of development objectives on clean energy. The paper used the CGE model to measure the impact of the developing renewable energy resources on macroeconomic： develo- ping renewable energy resources had negative impact on China＇s GDP, but the impact was not great. On the other hand, developing renewable energy resources could reduced remarkably the CO2 and SO2 emission and help to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP. The paper analyzed the main existing problems in renewable energy sources pricing, discussed the policy choice of the present renewable en- ergy sources pricing and at last put forward relative suggestions for the pricing and development of re- newable energy sources.