基于x分布项目投资风险收益理论模型的建立与优化

The Construction and Optimazation of the Project's Investment Risk Return Theory Model Based on x Distrucbution

项目投资经济效果评价指标的风险分析指的是如何依据各影响因素的概率分布来推求经济效果评价指标的概率分布．在投资决策时首要考虑的问题便是投资收益或投资收益率．本文采用最优化的原理与方法，从理论上建立了基于ｘ分布项目投资风险收益理论模型并证明了其中一类有唯一最大值，另一类无极值．这对提高项目投资经济的可靠性及风险分析理论的发展具有重要的意义．

Risk analysis of measures of a project's investment economic effect refers to how to acquire the probability distribution of measures according to those of the influencing factors. When we are making investment decisions, the first problem needs considering is about return on investment or return on investment ratios. Using the theory and methodology of optimization, this article has constructed two theoretical models of investment risk -return analysis based on x distribution and then proved that one of the models had an singular maximum while the other had none. This will have great significance in improving the economic reliability of project's investment and developing the risk analysis theory as well.