系统风险的概念及其计算方法

Concept of System Risk and Its Computational Method

本文在风险概念的基础上,从风险的特性出发,阐述了风险的本质,并重新定义了风险的含义,对风险的内涵作了进一步延伸和扩展,指出风险是系统不利事件对作用对象的影响程度。衡量这种影响程度需要从不利事件发生的概率以及后果两个方面来刻画。由于不利事件的发生以及作用后果具有不确定性,因此刻画影响程度需要从特征量角度进行分析和计算,给出了风险特征量计算方法。本文提出的风险计算比经典风险的计算更能反映风险的本质,最后给出了系统不利事件发生概率的估计方法。

Based on the concept of risk, the nature of risk was elaborated on the basis of the characteristics of risk. The meaning of risk was re-defined and its content was further extended and expanded. The definition of system risk was the impact of a bad event of a system on the objectives. The extent of impact on the objectives was described by the occurrence probability of a systematic bad event and the influence consequence. The impact extent was quantitatively determined from the characteristic quantities according to the occurrence uncertainties and its consequences of the bad event in the system. A computational method was proposed to calculate the impact extent of the system. The method proposed in this papercould reflect the nature of risk better than the classical definition of risk. Finally, a program was put forward to estimate the occurrence probability for the bad event of the system.