基于理论价格法的广东省茂名市房地产泡沫研究

The Research of the Real Estate Bubble in Maoming,Guangdong Base on Theoretical Price Method

运用理论价格法从定量分析的角度对广东省茂名市房地产市场是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的程度进行研究。研究结果表明:茂名市房地产市场2008年基本无泡沫;2009—2011年这三年茂名市房地产市场存在泡沫,尤以2009年最为严重;2010年房地产市场过热;2011年泡沫程度有明显的上升的趋势。

This paper uses theoretical price method to research if there is existence of the real estate market bubble and how large is the real estate bubble in Maoming,Guangdong Province from the angle of quantitative analysis.The result shows that：there is basically no bubble in 2008;There is bubble from 2009 to 2011 year,it is the most serious in 2009;It＇s overheated in 2010;In 2011,the extent of the bubble has obvious upward trend.