北疆地区1955—2009年气温、降水变化特征的时间序列分析

The Time Series Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation in Xinjiang Northern Region during 1955-2009

依据北疆地区1955--2009年月平均气温、降水资料，运用线性倾向的最小二乘法分析北疆年、季平均气温及降水的演变趋势；为增强突变分析结果的可信度，运用Mann—Kendall检验、滑动T检验及累计距平法对北疆年平均气温、降水进行突变检测；运用Morlet小波变换分析了年平均气温、降水的周期性特征。结果表明：近55a北疆地区年平均气温及降水量在波动中整体呈上升趋势，气候倾向率分别为0．332℃／10a及0．016（mm／d）／10a，且发生突变时间分别在1988—1990年及1986年较明显；四季平均气温及降水也呈增加趋势，其中冬季增温最大，夏季较其它各个季节增温不显著，秋季在四季中降水量增加显著；年平均气温变化在8a，12～13a以及21a时间尺度上均存在周期振荡，其中8a振动周期表现稳定，为1955-2009年的主要周期；年平均降水量在5～7a，12～14a及32a时间尺度上振荡比较明显，其中5～7a及12～14a较32a振动周期表现较弱，32a为1955--2009年的主要周期，其周期表现稳定。

Based on observation of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 20 meteorological stations in Northern Xinjiang from 1955 to 2009, trend variation of seasonal and annual mean temperature and precipitation were analyzed by using the method of linear regression analysis. In order to strengthen the credibility of conclusion, abrupt change was tested by using accumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall test, Moving-t test methods. Periodic characteristics of annual mean temperature and precipitation were analyzed with Morlet wavelet transformation method. The results showed that the annual mean temperature and precipitation during 1955-2009 increased with the rate of 0.332℃ per 10 years and 0.016（mm/d） per 10 years. Abrupt change was obvious in 1988-1990 and 1986 respectively. The mean temperature and precipitation of each season also increased, especially in winter, and the change in summer temperature was not evident relatively. The annual mean temperature had three obvious periodic oscillations, with 8,12-13 and 21-year. And 8 year period was dominant and performed steadily. The annual mean precipitation also had three obvious periodic oscillations,which were 5-7, 12-14 and 32-year, and 32-year was dominant period and performed steadily.