基于区域土地利用变化的能源碳足迹改进算法及应用

Modified method of energy carbon footprint and application based on regional land use change

为了充分反映区域生产性土地的碳吸收服务功能,准确表征能源消费碳排放对区域环境造成的压力,该文以江苏省为案例,根据区域实际土地利用变化和各类土地的净初级生产力对能源碳足迹核算方法进行了改进,并对改进后的能源碳足迹与经济发展之间的关系予以分析。结果表明:1999-2009年期间,采用Wackernagel算法,江苏省人均能源足迹由0.5184hm2增加到1.4626hm2;而采用改进算法,人均能源足迹由0.1771hm2增加到0.4194hm2,较原算法年均降低68.5%。人均能源足迹与人均GDP之间存在显著的抛物线关系和环境库兹涅茨现象;二者之间的脱钩指数持续小于1,并呈现逐渐明显的相对脱钩态势,表明当前江苏省经济增长对能源消费的依赖减弱,能源利用效率逐步提高。

In order to better reflect the current state of regional actual ability to absorb carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption and avoid overestimating environment pressure, the calculation method of energy carbon footprint （ECF） was modified based on regional land use change and net primary productivity. The ECF of Jiangsu province during the period of 1999-2009 was analyzed by the modified method, and the relationship between the modified ECF and economic growth was evaluated using regression analysis and decoupling index. The results showed that during the last 11 years, the ECF per capita increased from 0.5184 hm^2 to 1.4626 hm^2 by Wackernagel method, while the ECF per capita increased from 0.1771 hm^2 to 0.4194 hm^2 by the modified method. Compared with Wackernagel＇s method, the ECF per capita by modified method reduced 68.5% per year on average. Relationship between GDP per capita and ECF did prove the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Also, the annual development speed of ECF was lower than that of GDP and both were in the state of relative decoupling. These reflect that the dependence of current economic growth on energy consumption gradually reduces and energy utilization efficiency gets improved.