贸易条件变动、技术进步与产业结构效益——基于跨国面板数据的分析

Terms of Trade Changes,Technological Progress and Benefits of Industrial Structure——An Analysis Based on Multinational Panel Data

本文基于技术视角,将贸易产品从不同技术层级分为5类,并采取工业技术进步率和高技术工业产品出口竞争力衡量工业产业结构效益。同时,利用15个国家1987-2008年的相关数据,实证检验了不同技术层级产品贸易条件变动对工业产业结构效益的影响。结果表明:初级产品贸易条件改善对工业产业结构效益具有负效应;而资源性产品和高技术产品贸易条件改善对工业产业结构效益具有正效应;低技术产品贸易条件改善提高了工业技术进步率却削弱高技术工业产品出口竞争力;中等技术产品贸易条件改善对发展中国家及新型工业化国家工业产业结构效益具有正效应,但削弱了发达国家高技术工业产品的出口竞争力。

Based on technological perspective, this paper first analyzes the effects of terms of trade movements on the benefits of industrial structure in theory, and then, classifies trade products into 5 categories by technological levels; and selects the rate of industrial technological progress and export competitiveness of high-tech industrial products as the measure of industrial structural benefits. Meanwhile, the effects are estimated for a panel of 15 countries over 1987 -2008. The results show that： the improvement of terms of trade in primary products has negative effects on industrial structural benefits, but resource-based and high-tech products have positive ones; the improvement of terms of trade in low-tech products increases the rate of technological progress, but weakens export competitiveness of high-tech industrial products; the improvement of terms of trade in medium-tech products has positive effects on industrial structural benefits in developing and newly industrializing countries, but weakens export competitiveness of high-tech industrial products in developed countries.