影响资本账户开放策略选择的因素——金融稳定的视角

Impact of Related Factors on the Capital Account Liberalization Strategies,Perspective of Financial Stability

金融稳定下影响资本账户开放策略选择的关联因素分析是目前国内外文献的研究热点。本文构建一个包含资本账户开放、金融稳定、国内储蓄率、对外债务履约状况、公众对金融体系的信心、金融深化以及消费不均等程度等诸多因素组成的系统分析框架,采用理论模型和实证方法探讨影响新兴市场经济体金融开放的相关因素。综合研究成果表明,资本账户开放在某种程度上会导致金融风险的上升。一国较低的储蓄率以及对外债务状况的恶化则会加剧开放引致的金融风险,而金融深化与消费水平不均等程度的改善以及公众对金融体系信心的提升在一定程度上都会有效增强开放进程中经济体的金融稳定程度,进而实现占优策略均衡。值得注意的是,本文提出了中国存在针对金融开放进程进行重新再思考的现实必要性。

Impacts of related factors on the capital account liberalization strategy related to the financial stability have always been paid close attention in the current literatures. Following by establishing a systematic analysis framework including the capital account liberalization, financial stability, domestic saving rate, external debt, the status of compliance, public confidence on the financial system, financial deepening, as well as the degree of consumption inequality, we try to explore the impact of related factors on financial openness for the emerging markets using the theoretical and empirical models. The comprehensive results show that capital account liberalization will lead to the rise of the financial risk to some extent. The relative low saving rate and the deterioration of the external debt situation will exacerbate the financial risks. Furthermore, the improvement of financial deepening and the reduction of the consumption inequality, as well as the public confidence on the financial system will effectively enhance the financial stability in the process of openness and achieve a dominant priority strategy equilibrium. It is worth noting that, this paper presents the realistic demand to rethink the existing process of financial liberalization.