基于残差修正的组合模型在港口吞吐量预测中的应用

Application of Combinatorial Model with Corrected Residual Error in Harbour Throughput Forecasting

针对吞吐量的预测,借助趋势分析法和灰色GM(1,1)建立组合预测模型,为提高预测精度,利用灰色残差模型对组合模型进行修正,同时,以重庆港为研究对象进行实例分析,结果表明经修正的模型具有简便实用的优点,最后,对重庆港未来几年的吞吐量进行预测。

In order to forecast the throughput of a harbour,the paper combines trend analysis and GM（1,1） into a combinatorial model and modifies it to increase its accuracy using grey residual error model.Then in an empirical study with the Chongqing harbour as the object,the paper attests the strength of the modified model such as ease of use and practicality.Finally it forecasts the throughput of the Chongqing harbour for the future several years.