农村剩余劳动力城市居留意愿研究——基于河南省18地市调查数据

Research on Surplus Rural Labour's Residing Preference in Cities in Henan Province

农村剩余劳动力能否留城长久定居,是人口城市化的关键。基于人口大省河南省18地市调查数据,采用交互分类分析和多元逻辑斯蒂分析方法,对农村剩余劳动力城市居留意愿的特点和影响因素进行了研究。受教育程度在某种程度上决定了农村剩余劳动力的留城定居意愿,受教育程度越高,留城定居意愿越强烈;家庭收入状况与最终返乡意愿密切关联,随家庭收入的提高,返乡意愿先升后降,呈现两头低中间高的状态;农村剩余劳动力是否在流入城市定居某种程度上取决于能否安居,买房成为留城重要条件;农村剩余劳动力的最终居留意愿受到了多种交互作用之因素的综合影响。

It is a key point for the Urbanization process for the whether the surplus rural labour＇ can eside in cities. According to the survey of 18 cities＇ of benan,one of the largest population province,by adopting crosstabs And Multinomial Logistic in spss ,this paper analyzes surplus rural labour＇s Residing Preference in cities and come to an-conclusion. It is that there is the strong positive correlation between the level of education and the Residing Preference. And also the preference of returning back mainly contributes to the whole family income status. Group of middle income shows the strongest willingness to go back home while the others groups shows the opposite way. Afford to -buy a house is the main factor to reside in cities for whether one can reside count on-whether on can afford to reside. The other factors shows wake correlation.