中国人口与可持续发展

Demographic Transition and Sustainable Development in China

随着中国人口转变进入新阶段,即劳动年龄人口停止增长、人口抚养比停止下降,过去30余年推动中国经济高速增长的人口红利即将消失,亟待创造必要的制度条件来获得以全要素生产率为主要驱动力的、更加可持续的经济增长源泉。转变经济发展方式,既是形成新型人口、资源、环境协调关系的必要条件,也是获得可持续经济增长源泉的关键。本文探讨了提高全要素生产率在转变经济发展方式中的重要作用,提出改善这一生产率来源的政策建议。同时,还针对中国"未富先老"的特点,从人力资本培养、应对老龄化和调整生育政策等角度提出了政策建议。

As China＇s demographic transition enters its new phase, namely, working age population stops growing and dependence ratio stops declining, demographic dividend that fueled the rapid economic growth in the past three decades is disappearing. It requires the Chinese government to create an institutional environment which is necessary and sufficient for an economic growthbased on total factor productivity improvement. The transformation of economic growth pattem serves as necessary condition under which the population, resources and environment can be further harmonized to sustain the economic growth. This paper discusses the role that total factor productivity plays in transforming the growth pattern and draws some policy suggestions for improving total factor productivity, tackling population aging, and reforming population policy.