基于“单国模式”引力模型的区域贸易协定效应分析——以中国—东盟自由贸易区对广西的贸易效应为例

区域贸易协定的成员国效应分析是国际贸易学的重要研究主题。本文在系统梳理广西与东盟间贸易状况的基础上,依托"单国模式"引力模型就中国—东盟自由贸易区对广西的贸易效应进行了实证分析,得出了贸易创造效应大于贸易转移效应、广西参与自由贸易区建设尚有较大空间和潜力的结论。结合广西实际,本文提出了调整与东盟的贸易互补性和竞争性以扩大贸易创造效应、改善外贸结构以降低贸易转移效应、推进市场整合、扩大境外投资等政策建议。

The analysis on member effect of regional trade agreement is important research topic in international trade economics.Based on the systematic sorting out the situation between Guangxi and ASEAN countries,this paper relied on the＂single country model＂gravity model to make empirical analysis on the trade effect of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on Guangxi,and drew conclusion that trade creation effect is bigger than trade diversion effect,and there is still relatively larger space and potential for Guangxi to participate in the Free Trade Area building.Combined with the reality in Guangxi,the paper put forward policy proposals such as adjusting trade complementary and competition with ASEAN to expand trade creation effect,improving trade structure to decrease trade diversion effect,promoting market integration,and expanding oversea investment.