我国降雨变化趋势分析

Analysis of change trend of precipitation in China

为分析气候变化背景下我国降雨的变化趋势,将Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验、Spearman秩次相关检验等方法相结合,对1951—2008年全国长序列站雨量资料1d,3d雨量极大值和年平均降雨量变化趋势进行了显著性分析,并探讨了其空间分布.结果表明:西北地区降雨在1 d,3d极值,总量上变化趋势都较为明显,且有增加的趋势,而南方特别是东南诸省降雨在极值、总量上变化都不显著.

The Mann-Kendall rank correlation method and the Spearman rank correlation method were used to study the change trend of precipitation affected by climate change in China. Significance analysis was conducted on the change trends of one-day and three-day extreme precipitation and annual average precipitation using the data obtained at stations with long-term time series of precipitation from 1951 to 2008. The spatial distribution of the precipitation was also analyzed. The results show that one-day and three-day extreme values and the total amount of precipitation changed significantly and had an increasing trend in the northwest, while they did not change significantly in the south, especially in southeastern provinces.