我国制造业与物流业联动发展的时空分异探析——基于灰色关联模型的实证研究

Empirical Study of Spatio-temporal Differentiation of Interactive Development between Manufacturing and Logistics Industry——Based on Gray Relational Model

文章从灰色关联理论入手,分别选取代表制造业与物流业发展的七大指标,实证我国不同综合经济区制造业与物流业联动发展的关联度及协调度。结果表明:(1)不同经济区制造业在发展过程中来自物流业的最主要胁迫因素与物流业在发展过程中来自制造业的最主要胁迫因素存在差异,但物流业的货运量与制造业全员劳动生产率均起了重要作用;(2)不同经济区制造业与物流业联动发展关联度都在中等以上水平,但总体的协调度不高,主要在中度失调、濒临失调与濒临协调之间;(3)不同经济区的协调度存在着较大的时空演化差异,制造业与物流业的联动发展是一项系统工程,应该分区域、分时段、动态地协调两者之间的关系,不仅要重视量上的协调,更应该重视质的协调,政府应该在政策上给予更多的优惠和支持以促进制造业与物流业的联动发展。

This thesis mainly uses the Gray Relational Model, chooses seven indexes of manufacturing and logistics industry to calculate the correlation and coordination index between manufacturing and logistic industry from 1998 to 2007 in different places of China. We find that the most important factor for the development of manufacturing and the most important factor for the development of logistics industry is different among different provinces, but the logistics cargo and manufacturing labor productivity are the most important factors in most of the zones. The correlation index between manufacturing and logistics industries in different places are much stronger, while the coordination index is not so high, most of the places are under the level of coordination. The interactive development between manufacturing and logistics industry is a system project, which should take the area, time, dynamic into consideration. We shall not only pay attention to the quantity of the coordination but also the quality level. The government should give more facilitate to the development of manufacturing and logistics industry.