湖南经济周期阶段的分析与预测

The Analysis and Forecast of Hunan Business Cycle Phases

根据湖南1978～2010年相关数据对湖南经济周期阶段进行分析,结果表明:1978～2010年湖南经济经历了5个繁荣时期,分别是1978～1979年、1984～1986年、1991～1993年、1995～1998年、2006～2010年,且繁荣阶段的持续性在不断增强;其余年份经济处于衰退阶段。另外,湖南经济周期阶段预测结果显示:2011～2012年经济依然处于繁荣阶段;2013～2015经济处于衰退阶段,虽然处于衰退阶段,但是其程度并不深,尤其是2015年。

Hunan business cycle phases through 1978 to 2010 have been analyzed in the paper. The results show that Hunan economy has experienced 5 times of prosperity phase： 1978-1979, 1984-1986, 1991-1993, 1995-1998, 2006-2010, and the duration of prosperity phase is in- creasing. The years not mentioned above were in recession. In addition, the forecast of Hunan business cycle phases shows that Hunan economy is going to be in boom in 2011-2012, but in recession from 2013 to 2015. Although it will experience recession, it won＇t be severe, especially in 2015.